Gold Rises as Weak US Jobs Report Fades Rate Hike Expectations

The gold futures contract (GCZ6) rose by 2.33% to trade at $4,399 per ounce on August 7, 2026, following a weaker-than-expected US non-farm payrolls report.

The data released by the US Bureau of Labour Statistics showed that Non-Farm Payrolls contracted by 23,000 in July, a sharp downside surprise compared to the consensus expectation of 80,000 new jobs.

This led to a decrease in the implied market probability of a 25-basis-point interest rate increase from 54% to approximately 44%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. The tool now signals a 56% likelihood that the Federal Reserve will maintain benchmark interest rates unchanged at the current level of 3.75% during its September meeting.

Gold typically benefits in this economic environment, as yields on US government bonds become less attractive and investors seek refuge in gold amid broader geopolitical instability. The weaker US dollar against major currencies also makes the precious metal more competitive for international buyers.