Goldman Sachs Lifts Brent Crude Forecast Amid Ongoing Shipping Disruptions

Goldman Sachs has revised its crude oil price forecasts for December 2026 and 2027, citing ongoing shipping disruptions in the Middle East. The bank's Brent crude forecast now stands at $125 a barrel for 2027, up from its previous estimate of $120. This increase is attributed to Goldman Sachs' assumption that average oil production in the Gulf region will remain 4 million barrels per day below pre-war levels.

The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy shipments, has seen a sharp decline in shipping activity over the past few weeks. With an average of only 10 commodity ships passing through the Strait daily, concerns over potential supply disruptions have been heightened. Goldman Sachs points out that while the increase in its price forecasts is modest, it reflects the bank's expectation that shipping disruptions will persist.

The bank also outlined a lower-price scenario, where Brent crude could fall into the $60s if average Gulf oil production rises by 1 million barrels per day above pre-war levels. This scenario highlights the wide range of possible outcomes for crude prices in 2027, with prolonged supply losses potentially pushing Brent above $120 a barrel.