Goldman Sachs Sticks to $4,900 Gold Price Target as Central Bank Demand Remains Strong

Goldman Sachs Research is sticking to its year-end price target of $4,900 per ounce for gold in 2026. The prediction is based on strong demand from central banks seeking to diversify their foreign currency reserves and a recovery in private investor ETF demand as the Fed remains on hold in 2026.

The firm estimates that China purchased 35 tonnes of gold in July, nearly double the amount reported in official public disclosures. This makes China the largest buyer during the month, with its central bank accounting for by far the most significant portion of purchases.

Goldman Sachs Research's nowcast model also tracks the volumes of gold moving through London's over-the-counter market into domestic vaults or third-party custodian firms. This allows the model to reflect buying that does not appear in official reserve data, including China's significantly higher-than-reported purchases.