Gold's Gains At Risk as US-Iran Conflict Continues

The UN General Assembly meeting's outcome is still uncertain, keeping gold futures in a bearish tone despite recent gains. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has dragged on for 210 days, with no resolution in sight, fueling energy-driven inflationary pressures.

Global central banks are stuck with rate hike bets as the Federal Reserve signals that its tightening campaign is far from over. Fed officials, including Michael Barr, Anna Paulson, and John Williams, have reinforced a hawkish stance, indicating further rate increases to curb persistent inflation.

CME FedWatch data shows traders now discount a 70% probability of another quarter-point rate hike at the October meeting, up from 50% previously. Gold futures tested key support at $4,293.96 but remain under pressure below the 9 EMA ($4,357) on the daily chart.

A 'Bearish Crossover' has formed as all Exponential Moving Averages (9, 20, 50, and 100) have dropped below the key resistance at $4,477.30. On a short-term perspective, gold futures have completed 'Three Black Crows' on the 1-Hr chart, potentially leading to further declines.