Gold's Value Now Seen Near $4,700 Amid Central Bank Buying

Deutsche Bank recently trimmed its gold price forecast for Q3 2026 by 22%, reducing it to $4,300 per ounce from a previous estimate of around $5,500. However, even this revised range implies that gold is fairly valued near $4,700, a level that was unthinkable just a couple of years ago.

The bank's commodity team led by analyst Michael Hsueh made the revision on June 23. Gold had hit an all-time high of approximately $5,110.50 in early 2026, with peaks approaching $5,405 before correcting back to the $4,000 to $4,100 range.

The cut is largely due to higher real yields putting pressure on gold, which pays no interest and becomes relatively less attractive when bonds start offering meaningful returns. Deutsche Bank's bear case envisions gold dropping to a floor of $3,800 per ounce if the Fed raises rates three to four times.

However, the bank isn't betting on this outcome as its base case. Instead, it still sees a path to $6,000 per ounce in 2026, a projection it first laid out on January 27.