Grain markets ended October with significant losses, driven by heavy fund selling. Brian Grete of CommStock Investments remains uncertain whether this selling pressure has concluded. Wheat futures attempted to recover on Friday after hitting new lows earlier in the week, supported by potential Chinese demand. Reports suggested that China’s COFCO was seeking bids for U.S. soft red winter wheat, though no confirmed sales were announced.
Grete noted that a $2 drop in wheat prices has sparked interest from global buyers, with weekly sales reaching a marketing-year high of 31.2 million bushels. He speculated that China might purchase U.S. wheat to meet its $17 billion agricultural import commitment, though the extent of these purchases remains unclear. Historically, China has been a modest importer of U.S. wheat, averaging 330,000 metric tons annually over the past decade.
Corn and soybean markets also faced challenges, with funds liquidating positions after reaching record lengths earlier in the year. Grete highlighted strong weekly export sales for corn at 51.3 million bushels but noted that outstanding sales lagged behind last year’s pace. Mexico, a key U.S. corn customer, has been slow to book cargoes due to higher freight costs and price sensitivity. Soybean futures showed slight gains, supported by robust export demand, with weekly exports 80% ahead of last year.
Cattle futures experienced a sharp decline on Friday, with December live cattle down $10.17 for the week. The sell-off was attributed to lower cash trade and profit-taking after reaching three-and-a-half-month highs. Grete observed that the market breached key support levels, triggering chart-based selling.