Grain Supplies Tighten Despite Record US Crop

Global grain supplies are tightening despite US farmers producing another huge corn crop. The USDA's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates forecast a deficit of nearly 30 million metric tons in 2026/27, the largest in over three decades.

The shortage is partly due to a decline in combined corn and wheat production among major exporting countries, which is set to fall sharply from last year. This projected year-on-year decline is the largest by volume since 1993/94 and the steepest percentage drop since 2012/13.

While crop prospects have recently improved for some key wheat exporters, this has not erased the broader setback in exportable grain supplies. Total world wheat production, like corn, is also expected to fall short of consumption in 2026/27.