Gulf Economies Hold Key to Post-War Order

The ongoing war in the Gulf region has entered its seventh month since US and Israeli strikes on Iran in February. Despite the scale of Iranian attacks, which have damaged critical infrastructure in Qatar and the UAE, the GCC's collective posture has been one of restraint under pressure.

This restraint reflects the Gulf's growing economic stake in regional stability. Over the past decade, diversification has moved to the centre of Gulf economic planning, with Saudi Arabia's Vision 2030, the UAE's We the UAE 2031, Oman Vision 2040, and Qatar National Vision 2030 prioritizing non-oil growth, investment, tourism, trade, logistics, and private-sector development.

The war has exposed the vulnerabilities of these ambitions. Disruption to international visitor spending in the Middle East is estimated to be at least $600 million per day, while energy exports have been severely impacted, with Qatar's LNG exports falling 96% compared to the same period last year, costing the country around $24 billion in gas sales.

The Gulf's economic transformation creates a strategic dilemma. Strong defence remains central to protecting states and infrastructure, yet repeated confrontation can threaten many of the same economic assets that Gulf security policies are designed to protect.