Gulf oil exports rebound amid Hormuz Strait attacks

Oil exports from the Gulf have rebounded significantly in recent days, despite a surge in attacks on ships around the Strait of Hormuz. Maritime intelligence firm Kpler reported that Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, recovered to over 81 percent of pre-war levels in September. Crude exports from the wider Middle East even exceeded pre-war levels on 14 days during the month. However, this recovery has coincided with rising attacks on tankers, leading to higher freight, insurance, and security costs for shipping companies.

On Tuesday, 12 crew members on a Panama-flagged tanker were injured in an attack while crossing the Strait of Hormuz. At least seven incidents involving tankers have been reported in the past week, according to shipping intelligence service Marisks. Despite these attacks, oil exports from the region have risen dramatically, with the seven-day moving average for Middle East crude exports reaching 18.3 million barrels per day (bpd) on September 30.

The recovery of oil exports has been made possible by Saudi Arabia’s use of alternative export infrastructure and complex systems for moving crude around Hormuz. Saudi’s East-West pipeline carries oil from fields in the east to the Yanbu port on the Red Sea. Ship-to-ship transfers also play a crucial role, with smaller shuttle boats transporting oil through the strait before offloading onto larger tankers beyond it. However, maintaining these flows is putting pressure on the shipping system, pushing freight costs higher and reducing tanker availability elsewhere.

Oil prices continue to fall, with Brent crude dropping 0.75 percent to $99.57 a barrel on Tuesday. US President Donald Trump has claimed credit for the increase in oil flows, asserting that US forces are protecting vessels passing through Hormuz. Iran has disputed these claims, stating that the amount of oil passing through the strait is “negligible” and that it still has effective control of the strait.