Gulf Oil Exports Recover to Pre-War Levels Despite Ongoing Conflict Damage

Persian Gulf oil exports have largely recovered to pre-war levels despite ongoing damage from the conflict, according to Goldman Sachs research.

The bank's analysis shows that oil exports in the region reached 23.3 million barrels a day over the week ending September 28, close to the average of 2025 and nearly double since the start of the month.

Crude oil has almost fully recovered, reaching 19 million barrels a day, which is 108% of the 2025 average. However, refined products such as diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel are still significantly below their normal volumes, at around half.

The recovery comes despite a drone attack that knocked out Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline on September 11, cutting off loadings at its Yanbu Red Sea terminal for nearly two weeks. The Houthi blockade of Saudi Red Sea exports through Bab-al-Mandab has also had an impact.