Gulf oil flows rebound to 81% of pre-war levels led by Saudi Arabia

Gulf oil flows, excluding Iran, have rebounded to over 81% of pre-war levels in September, according to data from Vortexa. The recovery was primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, which significantly increased its exports despite recent attacks on its oil infrastructure. Total flows of crude oil, condensate, and refined fuels averaged 19.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in September, up from about 23.6 million bpd before the Middle East war began on February 28.

Vortexa's data showed that crude oil and condensate flows recovered to 91% of their pre-war level of 16.3 million bpd, while refined fuel exports remained at 60% of their pre-war level of 7.3 million bpd. The decline in refined fuel exports has worsened global shortages of diesel and jet fuel, pushing prices to record highs in several markets. Vortexa analyst Claire Jungman noted that daily flows are considerably more volatile than before the war, raising questions about the sustainability of recent levels.

Saudi Arabia played a key role in the recovery, with Kpler data showing its crude oil and condensate exports rising by about 4.2 million bpd from August to 6.6 million bpd in September. This increase offset declines elsewhere in the Gulf, including a complete halt in Iranian exports due to a U.S. blockade. Other Gulf producers adapted to attacks by using 'dark transits,' where tankers switch off tracking systems to avoid detection.

The U.S. military reported rerouting 130 commercial vessels as part of the naval blockade on Iranian ports. Despite the challenges, combined crude oil and condensate exports from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Oman, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iran rose to about 14.7 million bpd in September from 10.8 million bpd in August.