Hormuz Oil Flows Return to Normal, Refined Fuel Shipments Lag

Crude oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have returned to prewar levels after a significant increase in recent weeks, but refined fuel shipments remain severely constrained.

Average daily crude shipments through the strait reached 13.5 million barrels per day as of Monday, according to data from Kpler, matching the prewar baseline. This recovery has been supported by US military escorts for tankers and increased use of pipelines that allow Gulf producers to bypass the strait.

Iran's influence over the waterway is weakening, with substantial volumes of crude continuing to pass through Hormuz despite Tehran's declarations that it had closed the strait during the conflict. However, refined petroleum products shipped through the Strait of Hormuz averaged just 677,000 barrels per day over seven days as of Monday, compared with 3.6 million barrels per day before the war.

The supply shortfall has contributed to a global fuel crisis, with diesel prices in the United States reaching record or near-record levels and raising concerns about the broader economic impact. US President Donald Trump is considering an export ban amid pressure from Republican lawmakers ahead of the midterm elections.