IEA Lowers Oil Forecasts as Diesel Shortage Worsens Amid Gulf and Russian Export Disruptions

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil supply and demand forecasts downward due to the ongoing diesel shortage caused by disruptions in Gulf and Russian exports.

Net exports from these two regions combined were 1.6 million barrels per day below pre-conflict levels in August, a significant shortfall that is putting pressure on global markets.

The situation is further complicated by the fact that both Gulf and Russian refining systems are experiencing constraints, with Russia's ability to ship diesel to international buyers severely impacted by Ukrainian attacks on its refineries.

This has resulted in a sharp increase in demand for stored supplies, which have been depleted at an alarming rate. Global observed oil stocks have fallen by more than 500 million barrels since the conflict began, leaving markets with a thinner buffer and greater vulnerability to further disruption.