IEA Warns of 25% Copper Deficit by 2035 Amid Record Prices

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global primary copper supply may face a 25% deficit by 2035, despite record prices. The agency attributes this potential shortfall to the pace of new project development remaining inadequate.

The average grade of copper mines worldwide has fallen by 40% since 1991, making it harder to expand supply and increasing capital costs. Capital intensity for expanding existing projects has also increased by 65% since 2020, nearing levels typically associated with new greenfield projects.

New copper discoveries have slowed significantly, with only 5% of all deposits discovered over the past 35 years found in the last decade. This, combined with delays and cost overruns in major copper projects, has led to a tighter copper concentrate market and concerns over supply security.