The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that global natural gas supplies could face further tightening during the 2026-27 winter heating season due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The IEA's report highlights a significant decline in liquefied natural gas (LNG) loadings from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which dropped by 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) year-on-year from March to October 2026. This resulted in a 5% decrease in global LNG output, as new projects only partially offset the reduced deliveries from the Persian Gulf.
The Strait of Hormuz remains severely restricted, creating unprecedented uncertainty for the global LNG market ahead of the winter. The IEA predicts that the disruption could lead to a 10-25 bcm year-on-year decline in global LNG supply during the November, March period, depending on the recovery pace of shipments through the strait.
Despite constraints in pipeline gas supplies, North American exporters are expected to drive LNG supply growth during the winter season, supported by expanding projects in the United States, Canada, and Mexico. Additional supplies are also anticipated from new facilities in West Africa and Australia. However, the IEA cautions that these new supplies will not be enough to compensate for the lost volumes from Qatar and the UAE.
The report outlines two scenarios: if the Strait of Hormuz begins reopening in January 2027, global LNG supply could decline by around 9 bcm, or 3% year-on-year. If the strait remains closed until the end of March 2027, the decline could be as sharp as 20 bcm, or 7% year-on-year. The IEA also warns of additional downside risks due to unplanned outages and delays in ramping up production at new LNG projects.