India's Gold Discount Hides a Deeper Story: Government Policy Trumps Weather
India is the world's largest buyer of gold jewelry, and a significant portion of that demand comes from farming households. However, this year's weak monsoon has led to a drought-like situation, affecting harvests and rural incomes.
The standard story goes that a weak monsoon leads to weak gold buying due to lower rural income. But according to recent data, government policies have played a much larger role in determining the price of gold than weather conditions.
In May 2024, India's government doubled customs duty on imported gold from 6% to 15%, causing domestic gold prices to plummet by over $100 an ounce. This was not a one-off event; similar policies were implemented in 2013 and 2016, resulting in supply shortages and higher prices.
According to the World Gold Council (WGC), India's gold demand fell by 148 tonnes in 2016 despite a decent monsoon. A nationwide jeweler's strike and demonetization efforts contributed to this decline.