India's retail gold sales are expected to fall 11% year-over-year in October 2026, despite a pickup in festive and wedding-related buying. Surendra Mehta, Secretary of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association (IBJA), noted that while October saw more purchases than September, sales volumes remain below last year's levels. As of September 25, 2026, gold sales were already down 8-10% compared to 2025, according to IBJA estimates.
Elevated gold prices are a key factor dampening demand. On October 22, 2026, spot gold was trading at Rs 1,43,447 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), significantly higher than the Rs 1.22 lakh to Rs 1.34 lakh range seen during the festive season in October 2025. The precious metal had earlier hit a record high of over Rs 2 lakh per 10 grams at the end of January 2026.
To attract buyers, jewellers are offering festive deals, including making charge waivers, gold rate protection, and discounts on diamond value. Some retailers are also providing gold coins as gifts on purchases above Rs 1 lakh. However, Mehta does not expect a significant recovery in consumer demand in the coming weeks, suggesting that festive buying may not drive a meaningful rebound in sales compared with last year.
The overall trend for gold remains weak, with a stronger rupee and inflation concerns weighing on prices. The US Federal Reserve’s October 28 policy decision and inflation guidance could prompt further monetary tightening, adding to the uncertainty in the gold market.