India's Wheat Export Window May Be Premature Amid Uncertain Weather Conditions

India's wheat export window is open, but it may be premature to assume the country has a surplus. The official production estimate for this year stands at 120.7 MMT, although trade estimates are lower at 110 MMT. Procurement has reached 35.76 MMT, exceeding last year's figure of 30 MMT.

The Central Pool wheat stocks stood at nearly 48 MMT on September 1, more than double the October 1 buffer norm of 20.5 MMT. However, this surplus is based on the crop already harvested. The next crop will be sown over the next two months, and concerns arise due to a monsoon that's about 15 per cent below normal.

The impact is uneven, with Punjab and Haryana facing large rainfall deficits but relying heavily on groundwater for their irrigated wheat. Rajasthan is more exposed, with rainfall about 25 per cent below normal and reservoir storage around 31 per cent below. Bihar has received around 35 per cent less rain, raising concerns over pre-sowing moisture and groundwater recharge.