Iran Keeps Hormuz Closed Until US Delivers on Promises

Tehran's decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz largely closed is not just about ships, tolls or navigation rights. Analysts say Iran wants to hold on to its most powerful bargaining chip until US President Donald Trump delivers on commitments made under a June 17 memorandum of understanding.

The conditions laid out by Iranian security chief Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr for reopening the strait are largely mirrored in the June agreement with Washington. These include lifting the US naval blockade and sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical exports, releasing frozen Iranian assets, withdrawing US forces from around Iran, ending attacks on Tehran and its regional allies, and providing compensation for damage caused during the war.

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder of the Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, told The New York Times that Iran wants to use the strait as a commitment mechanism to ensure Trump implements the various provisions of the MOU. 'Iranian officials are concerned that if the strait opens, Trump would walk away from this conflict without feeling the need to resolve it,' Batmanghelidj said.

Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group, described Hormuz as a 'sword of Damocles over Trump.' 'Iran wants to front-load benefits without surrendering its main leverage, which is Hormuz,' Vaez said. Analysts say trust remains the biggest obstacle in reaching an agreement between Tehran and Washington.

The negotiations with Oman over how shipping could move through the strait are nearing completion, but an agreement with Muscat would not automatically mean ships can return to normal operations. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi made clear that reopening the strait remains dependent on fulfilling conditions conveyed through mediators.