Iran War Disrupts US Oil Planning, Survey Finds

The ongoing Iran war is causing significant disruptions to long-term planning in the US oil industry. A quarterly survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that oil executives are growing increasingly frustrated with the conflict's impact on market volatility.

The survey, which covered September 16-24, received responses from 125 energy companies, including 83 exploration and production firms and 42 oilfield service companies. The respondents anticipated an average price of $88 a barrel for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at the end of this year.

'We are getting to the point in this global conflict and its effect on commodity markets that it is tough to predict what the remainder of 2026 and also 2027 will potentially look like,' one respondent said. Another executive expected WTI prices to range between $75 and $100 a barrel by year's end.

The survey highlighted growing concerns about market volatility, with some respondents noting that pricing swings of $5, $10, or $20 up or down are common due to the Iran conflict. One respondent questioned whether 2026 would repeat the economic turmoil seen during the 2012-2020 period, when prices fluctuated between $100 and -$30 per barrel.