Iran has intensified its attacks on tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, jeopardizing the fragile recovery of crude oil exports from the Persian Gulf. Over the past month, nearly 20 commercial ships, primarily tankers, have been targeted while passing through the strait, the Persian Gulf, or the coast of Oman, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center. Analysts report that Iran attacked roughly two ships for every 100 vessels crossing the strait in the third quarter, highlighting the escalating threat.
The current oil flows through Hormuz rely heavily on a U.S. military commitment to secure a southern route along Oman’s coast. However, the sustainability of this rebound remains uncertain without a negotiated settlement or concession from Tehran. To mitigate risks, tankers often transfer crude to other ships in the Gulf of Oman, a process that, while reducing exposure to attacks, demands more vessels and increases costs.
Despite these challenges, crude oil shipments through Hormuz have shown fluctuations, sometimes matching or exceeding pre-war levels. Data from Kpler indicates that shipments averaged about 10.3 million barrels per day for the week ended Saturday, about 23% below the pre-war baseline of 13.5 million bpd. Windward estimates crude flows are averaging 9-10 million bpd, compared to a pre-war baseline of 14.5 million bpd.
The high costs associated with shipping crude through Hormuz are significant, with freight and insurance rates soaring. Since July, at least nine sailors have died, 18 have been injured, and three are missing, according to the International Maritime Organization. The cost of shipping crude from the Persian Gulf to China has skyrocketed to $1 million per day for each tanker. Brent oil prices remain near $100 per barrel, reflecting the ongoing risks and high costs of delivering and insuring crude in consuming regions.