Iran's 'October Surprise' Could Send Oil Prices Soaring

Crude oil prices have pulled back in recent weeks due to increased flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but analysts expect a potential 'October Surprise' from Iran could push prices higher.

The US has authorized the release of over 40 million barrels of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, which will boost supplies and put downward pressure on prices. However, if Iran escalates its actions in October, it could lead to higher oil prices and punish President Donald Trump ahead of the midterm elections.

The 'October Surprise' could manifest as direct attacks on US warships near the region, bombings of energy infrastructure, or disruptions to pipelines.

Techincally, Brent crude oil has formed a bullish pattern, with support from an ascending trendline and a 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), suggesting prices may bounce back in October. If the price breaks above $109.96, it could target $119, but if calm persists, prices may continue to fall below $80.