Japan's Rice Prices Set to Drop as Production Rebounds in 2026

Rice prices in Japan are set to decline significantly from their record highs in 2024 and 2025, according to a report by the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture. The projected drop comes as Japanese rice production rebounds, with total output expected to rise by roughly 100,000 tonnes year on year to 7.37 million tonnes in 2026-27. This increase is largely driven by higher non-table rice production, which has helped stabilize domestic supplies.

The report indicates that Japan will import only the minimum market access volume of rice due to sufficient domestic supplies. Government decisions regarding surplus private table rice stocks and the rebuilding of government reserves will also play a crucial role in the feed market. Larger rice supplies could reduce the need for feed corn and wheat, impacting the broader agricultural market.

Rice consumption in Japan is projected to grow by 7 percent from 2025-26 to 7.9 million tonnes. Despite this growth, per capita consumption has been declining as the country's prosperity has increased. Average rice intake has dropped from 1,106 kilocalories in 1960 to between 475 and 500 kilocalories in the 2020s, as consumers have diversified their food choices.

The report also highlights that the Japanese yen's depreciation around spring 2022, coupled with rising global energy and food prices, led to higher grocery prices for most food items. However, rice prices remained relatively stable due to Japan's high self-sufficiency rate, which shielded them from exchange rate movements and global commodity markets. This stability supported rice demand in 2022 and 2023.