Kazakhstan Oil Production Set to Rise Amid Azerbaijan's Decline

Kazakhstan's oil production is projected to reach 96 million tonnes in 2028 and 99 million tonnes in 2029, according to recent reports. This growth is contingent on expansion projects at offshore fields and export route capacity.

However, there are concerns about the reliability of these projections, given a history of slippage in ramp-ups at these large offshore fields.

Azerbaijan's oil production, on the other hand, has been declining due to mature field depletion. In August, its oil output fell by 8.3% year-over-year to 2.2 million tonnes.

The distinction between quota-relevant growth and secular decline is crucial in OPEC+ compliance arithmetic. If Kazakhstan's trajectory is formalized into the alliance's baseline discussions, it could have significant implications for global supply composition.