Indian stock markets are poised for a positive week, driven by key economic indicators and global developments. Analysts highlight the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) inflation data, foreign institutional investor (FII) activity, and crude oil prices as major factors influencing investor sentiment. Ajit Mishra, SVP of Research at Religare Broking, noted that movements in crude oil, the dollar, US Treasury yields, and FII flows will be crucial in determining market direction. The domestic economic calendar will also be busy, with October WPI inflation and merchandise trade data set to be released on November 16.
Globally, investors will keep an eye on US retail sales, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, and US jobless claims for insights into economic growth and future monetary policy. Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, mentioned that Indian equities are expected to continue their upward trend, supported by strong FII inflows and robust domestic fundamentals. Foreign investors have shown significant interest in Indian equities, pouring in Rs 84,290 crore in the first fortnight of November after two months of net outflows.
Concerns over stretched artificial intelligence valuations and semiconductor investment sustainability have triggered volatility in global technology stocks. Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, warned that a deeper correction in this segment could dampen broader risk appetite and impact Indian IT companies. Additionally, US Treasury yields and the dollar's strength could tighten financial conditions and influence capital flows into emerging markets. Crude oil prices and currency movements remain important external factors.
Last week, the BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty saw gains, with the Sensex climbing 564.43 points and the Nifty rising 113.95 points. Analysts predict that markets will start pricing in the Reserve Bank of India's response ahead of its December policy review, with crude oil prices and foreign flows being key watchpoints. Hariselvin Radhakrishnan, Founder & CEO of HST Wealth, emphasized that strong US retail activity or hawkish signals in the FOMC minutes could reinforce expectations of tighter monetary conditions, keeping Treasury yields above the 5 per cent threshold.