LNG Export Capacity to Double by 2030 Reshaping Energy Markets

The global liquefied natural gas (LNG) market is poised for a dramatic transformation, with export capacity set to double by 2030. Supply disruptions from conflicts like Russia’s war in Ukraine and the Iran war have already doubled LNG prices this year, but a far larger shift is on the horizon. Between 2025 and 2030, new facilities will add over 330 billion cubic meters per year (bcm/yr) of export capacity, the largest expansion in history, according to the International Energy Agency.

Initially, this surge in supply may temper prices, especially as demand struggles to keep pace. Shell anticipates global LNG demand rising by 65% by 2050, while ExxonMobil expects its LNG sales to hit 50 million tons annually by 2030. However, in the short term, supply could outstrip demand, putting downward pressure on benchmark prices like Europe’s TTF and Asia’s JKM. Companies without long-term contracts may face squeezed margins, while even integrated majors like Shell, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and TotalEnergies will see pressure as contracts renew at lower prices.

Midstream operators, companies responsible for transporting and storing natural gas, are likely to benefit the most from this expansion. Firms like Kinder Morgan, Williams Companies, Enterprise Products Partners, and Enbridge will see increased pipeline throughput, though they will need to invest heavily in new infrastructure. Meanwhile, energy logistics companies, including LNG carriers like Flex LNG and Golar LNG, as well as storage and regasification firms such as Excelerate Energy and Höegh LNG, stand to gain from higher demand for shipping and storage solutions.

The coming wave of LNG projects, primarily in the U.S., Qatar, and Russia, will reshape the industry. While some producers may struggle to adapt, midstream and logistics companies are positioned to thrive amid the surge in gas throughput and transport needs.