The rapid economic growth in India and China over the past few decades has transformed them into the world's largest energy consumers and major emitters of air pollutants. This expansion, driven by industrialization and urbanization, has significantly increased energy demand, with both countries still heavily reliant on fossil fuels, particularly coal, for electricity and industrial activities. As a result, India and China face some of the highest levels of air pollution globally, with fine particulate matter (PM2.5) posing severe risks to public health and the environment.
A critical but often overlooked factor in air pollution in these regions is their sensitivity to global energy market dynamics. Both countries depend heavily on imports of crude oil and natural gas, with a significant portion sourced from the Middle East. This dependence creates vulnerability to geopolitical instability, which can disrupt supply chains, alter fuel prices, and influence domestic energy-use decisions. Disruptions in oil and gas supply could lead to increased reliance on domestically available coal, potentially worsening emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2), black carbon, and other pollutants.
Recent conflicts in the Middle East have raised concerns about the stability of global energy supply systems. While the economic and geopolitical implications of such conflicts are widely studied, their potential environmental consequences, particularly the indirect impacts on air pollution in distant but energy-dependent regions like India and China, remain poorly understood. Existing studies have primarily focused on local emission sources and policy interventions, with limited attention given to how external geopolitical shocks can influence air pollution.
The present study investigates whether energy disruptions coinciding with the Middle East conflict are associated with changes in air pollution in India and China. It examines long-term changes in economic growth and energy consumption, quantifies the role of fossil fuel-based energy production in driving emissions, and compares atmospheric sulfur dioxide observed by satellite in March 2025, one year before the conflict, with March 2026, during the ongoing conflict. The study highlights the risks associated with continued dependence on fossil fuels, particularly coal, as a fallback option during energy supply disruptions.