Middle East crude exports surge despite Strait of Hormuz attacks

Middle East crude oil exports have surged above pre-war levels despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to ship-tracking firm Kpler, exports exceeded pre-war levels on four of the seven days in the final week of September, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day (bpd). The seven-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million bpd on October 1. Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began on February 28, 2025, exports averaged 18 million bpd.

The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the week ending September 30. Additionally, liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose to their highest monthly level since February. The figures exclude vessels that may have crossed the strait with their transponders turned off to avoid detection.

Despite the rise in exports, attacks on tankers continued, with at least seven incidents reported around the Strait of Hormuz. The Very Large Crude Carrier Kazimah III was struck on October 1 by an unknown projectile, causing a fire on board. All crew members were evacuated safely. The tanker had recently discharged two million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port in Oman.

Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported that merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a 'heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.' Current intelligence suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, rather than targeting specific vessels. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.