Middle East oil exports hit pre-war highs despite tanker attacks in Hormuz

Middle East oil exports surpassed pre-war levels in September, according to shipping data from Kpler and Vortexa. The seven-day moving average for crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day by September 30, with cargoes exceeding pre-war volumes on 14 days. This surge comes despite heightened threats to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as noted by Marisks, a shipping intelligence service.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have ramped up exports, with many cargoes bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. Kpler reported that 40% of shipments now avoid the strait, utilizing alternative routes like pipelines. The Red Sea has also become a key route to circumvent Iran's attempts to impose a blockade on Hormuz, where around a fifth of the world's petroleum supplies previously crossed.

The export surge has been primarily driven by Saudi Arabia, which has increased shipments to regain market share. Vortexa's data showed that the 14-day moving average for Middle East crude and condensate exports hit 18.6 million bpd, exceeding the 10-year seasonal average. Liquefied natural gas cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also rose to their highest levels since February.

However, the region remains volatile, with at least seven tanker attacks reported in the past week. The VLCC Kazimah III and the Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi were both struck by unknown projectiles, causing damage but no casualties. Marisks suggested that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas rather than targeting specific vessels.