Middle East Crude Exports Surge Despite Strait of Hormuz Attacks

Crude oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded, surpassing pre-war levels in four of the final seven days of September despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz. According to ship-tracking firm Kpler, exports hit between 19.5 million barrels per day (bpd) and 22.5 million bpd on September 24 and again from September 27 to 29. Before the US-Israeli war with Iran began in February, exports averaged 18 million bpd. As of October 1, the 7-day moving average stood at 18.5 million bpd, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and other routes.

The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million bpd in the seven days leading up to September 30. Liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz also reached their highest monthly level since February. These figures exclude vessels that turned off their Automatic Identification System transponders to avoid detection.

However, security threats persist in the region. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were evacuated safely. The vessel had recently discharged 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at Ras Markaz port in Oman.

Marisks warned of a heightened and unpredictable threat to merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The agency suggested that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement zones, rather than targeting specific vessels. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.