Middle East Fuel Vulnerability Exposed: Who's Most at Risk?

The Middle East faces significant fuel vulnerability due to various factors beyond crude oil production. A country's refining capacity, storage, secure supply routes, and financial resources play a crucial role in mitigating the risk of fuel shortages.

Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen are among the most vulnerable countries in the region. Lebanon relies heavily on imported refined petroleum products for transport, backup electricity generation, and essential services, making it susceptible to disruptions in maritime deliveries due to its financial crisis, currency weakness, and political paralysis.

Syria's damaged infrastructure, weak public finances, and dependence on external fuel supplies make it vulnerable to any disruption in imported crude or refined products. Yemen's conflict has fragmented the country's institutions, weakened its currency, and damaged ports, roads, and energy infrastructure, rendering it highly exposed to fuel disruptions.

Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, and Iraq occupy a middle position in terms of fuel vulnerability. Turkey depends on imported oil and gas but benefits from multiple suppliers and transport corridors, although sustained high prices would increase inflation and pressure the current account. Egypt has greater refining, storage, and transport capacity but faces high domestic demand, fiscal pressure, and dependence on international markets.