Middle East Oil Exports Reach Pre-War Highs

Middle East oil exports in the last week surged past pre-war levels, according to data from Kpler cited by Al Arabiya. The news, reported by Newsquawk, highlights a notable rebound in seaborne shipments, though experts caution that such tracking figures are estimates subject to revision. While exports and production are distinct, barrels can be drawn from storage or rerouted without affecting output, the market often prices the probability of interruptions rather than the actual flow.

The distinction between normalized upstream operations and a push to clear cargoes while conditions allow is critical for understanding the duration of this trend. Market analysts will be watching for revisions to the tracking data, the shape of the prompt spread, and freight rates rather than just the flat price. Any corroboration from loading programs at the next month's nominations could provide further clarity.

Related developments include the US President Trump's announcement that Europe has agreed to release a massive amount of diesel oil, with French President Macron confirming the release of up to 100 million barrels over four months. Meanwhile, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara stated that Japan is already releasing oil reserves but has no new plans for further releases.

Oil prices have seen mixed trading amid ongoing supply-related headlines and the US-Iran stalemate. WTI crude settled at USD 91.11 per barrel, down USD 1.76, while Brent crude settled at USD 102.25 per barrel, down USD 0.06.