Middle East Oil Exports Rebound Despite Hormuz Attacks

Middle East crude oil exports, excluding Iran, have rebounded to pre-war levels despite ongoing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, according to shipping data from Kpler. In late September, exports surpassed the pre-war average of 18 million barrels per day (bpd) on four days, peaking between 19.5 million and 22.5 million bpd.

Following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz at the start of the Iran war, non-Iranian crude exports from the region plummeted by 72% in just 10 days. The recovery has been driven by alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. In September, about 40% of crude left the Gulf without passing through Hormuz, up from 17% before the war.

Kpler reports that over 70% of crude changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman in August, compared to almost none before the conflict. Additionally, Saudi Arabia boosted exports through the Red Sea, while the UAE utilized its pipeline to Fujairah. The primary exporters in the region are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq.

Iran's exports remain significantly below pre-war levels due to US policies. Meanwhile, attacks on vessels near Hormuz persist, with at least seven incidents reported recently. On October 1, the tanker Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, though all crew members were safely evacuated.