Middle East Oil Exports Rebound Despite Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Middle East oil exports, excluding Iran, have surpassed pre-war levels for the first time since the US and Israel launched their offensive against Iran in late February. According to data from maritime tracking firm Kpler, weekly shipments averaged above the pre-conflict level of 18 million barrels per day last week. In September, crude oil exports from the region reached at least 16.5 million barrels daily, excluding Iran.

Kpler noted that 40% of the oil now bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, with most shipments changing tankers offshore. The data includes flows through the Red Sea, a route increasingly used to avoid the blockade Iran is attempting to impose on Hormuz. Despite Iran's claims of control over the strait, more ships are successfully navigating the area, and alternative routes are operating at full capacity.

Experts caution that the situation remains far from normal, as Iran is deprived of a large share of its own exports due to a US counterblockade of its ports. Saudi Arabia has benefited from the reactivation of its East-West pipeline, which links its main oil fields to the Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea, allowing it to bypass Hormuz. The pipeline resumed operations on September 22 after being shut down on September 11 due to strikes launched from Iraq.

The United Arab Emirates is also bypassing Hormuz thanks to its pipeline linking Abu Dhabi’s fields to Fujairah, a terminal just outside the strait on the Gulf of Oman. As of October 5, Brent North Sea crude for December delivery fell 0.79% to $101.44 a barrel, while its US counterpart, West Texas Intermediate for November delivery, dropped 1.2% to $90.02.