Middle East Oil Exports Rebound to Pre-War Levels Despite Hormuz Attacks

Middle East crude oil exports, excluding Iran, have rebounded to levels seen before the Iran war, according to data from trade intelligence firm Kpler. In late September, exports surpassed the pre-war average of about 18 million barrels per day (bpd) on four days, peaking between 19.5 million and 22.5 million bpd. This recovery comes despite ongoing attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, which had initially caused a 72% drop in exports over 10 days after the war began.

The resurgence in exports has been driven by alternative routes and ship-to-ship transfers. In September, around 40% of crude left the Gulf without passing through Hormuz, up from just 17% before the conflict. Kpler reports that over 70% of the crude changed tankers offshore in the Gulf of Oman in August, a stark contrast to the near-zero transfers before the war. Additionally, Saudi Arabia increased exports through the Red Sea, while the UAE utilized its pipeline to Fujairah.

The primary exporters in the region are Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Iraq. However, Iran remains an outlier, with its exports still well below pre-war averages due to US policies. Meanwhile, attacks on ships around Hormuz continue, with at least seven incidents reported in recent weeks. On October 1, the tanker Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, according to maritime intelligence firm Marisks, though all crew members were safely evacuated.