US barley production plummets 19% raising concerns for malt supply

The US barley crop experienced a significant decline in 2026, with production dropping 19% year over year to 116 million bushels, or approximately 2.5 million tons. This marked the sharpest decrease among major small grains for the season, according to the USDA. The reduction was driven by a 10% decrease in harvested barley area, which fell to 1.6 million acres, as well as a lower average yield of 72.1 bushels per acre.

In contrast, other small grains like wheat and oats showed more stability. US wheat output remained steady at 1.53 billion bushels, while oat production saw only a slight 1% decline to 69.1 million bushels.

The reduced barley supply could heighten competition between feed and malting demand. If more barley is allocated for feed, the availability of malting barley might shrink, potentially driving up malt prices in the 2026/27 marketing year. The overall impact will hinge on factors such as crop quality, inventories, imports, and the proportion of barley meeting malting specifications.

Smaller breweries could face higher raw material costs, as they typically lack the ability to hedge expenses or secure long-term supply contracts. This could pose a particular challenge for these businesses in the coming months.