Middle East Oil Exports Recover, but Tensions Remain

Oil exports from the Middle East have largely recovered to pre-war levels, despite ongoing tensions in the region. According to data from Kpler, a maritime intelligence firm, daily oil flow from the Middle East reached 92% of its pre-war baseline in the final week of September.

The rebound is attributed to three key factors: US military assistance, ship-to-ship transfers, and the use of pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The US Navy has been supporting ships as they pass through the strait since mid-June, providing air support and intercepting incoming threats from drones, missiles or boats.

Ship-to-ship transfers have become a common practice, with over 70% of crude oil passing through the strait in August being transferred from shuttle tankers onto other vessels in the Gulf of Oman. This method appears to be more protected from Iranian attack, but experts question how long these ships can last.

Meanwhile, oil exporting countries in the Gulf have increased their use of pipelines to export crude oil overland via pipelines. Almost a quarter of all crude flowing from the region is now being piped past the Strait of Hormuz to terminals along the Gulf of Oman.