Middle East Oil Exports Recover to Near Pre-War Levels Despite Ongoing Conflict

Crude oil shipments from the Middle East have recovered quickly after disruptions caused by regional conflicts. According to recent estimates, crude exports have rebounded to around 17.5 million barrels per day, which is roughly 98% of pre-war levels.

This recovery is remarkable given that the conflict has been ongoing for eight months and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains a significant security risk. The picture is less encouraging for refined products, with flows of diesel, gasoline, and other products running at approximately 3 million barrels per day, only about 58% of pre-war levels.

Saudi Arabia has played a crucial role in the recovery, with estimated shipments more than doubling in September and rising above their 2025 average. This helps explain why physical supply conditions have stabilized despite the broader conflict.

However, higher volumes do not mean shipping risks have disappeared. Tankers continue operating in an environment of persistent security threats, while attacks and military tension around the Gulf have kept insurance, logistics, and routing risks elevated.