Middle East oil exports rise above pre-war levels amid conflict

Middle Eastern crude oil exports surged beyond pre-war levels during the US-Israel conflict with Iran, reaching between 19.5 and 22.5 million barrels per day in late September 2026. This spike, based on preliminary Kpler data, marks a significant increase from the 18 million barrels per day averaged between March 2025 and February 2026. The seven-day moving average stood at 18.5 million barrels per day as of October 1, 2026. These figures include shipments through key routes like the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, as well as ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.

Liquefied natural gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz also hit their highest monthly level since February 2026. However, the data does not account for vessels that may have disabled their AIS transponders to evade detection. Before the war, around 125 commercial vessels traversed the strait daily, facilitating roughly 20% of the world's crude oil and LNG supply.

Despite the increased exports, traffic continues to face disruptions due to attacks. Maritime risk firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents, including an October 1 strike on the oil tanker Kazimah III. Fortunately, the crew was evacuated safely.