Middle East Oil Exports Rise Despite Strait of Hormuz Tanker Attacks
Crude oil exports from the Middle East have surged above pre-war levels in recent days, despite ongoing attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. According to shipping data from Kpler, exports exceeded pre-war levels on September 24 and again from September 27 to 29, reaching between 19.5 million and 22.5 million barrels per day. Prior to the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, exports averaged 18 million barrels per day between March 2025 and February this year. As of October 1, the 7-day moving average for crude exports stood at 18.5 million barrels per day, including shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Gulf of Oman.
The overall tally for crude, oil products, chemicals, and non-gas liquids averaged 22.4 million barrels per day in the seven days leading up to September 30, Kpler data showed. Additionally, the number of liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes exiting the Strait of Hormuz rose in September to its highest monthly level since February. The data excludes vessels that may have crossed the strait with their Automatic Identification System transponders turned off to avoid detection.
However, the Strait of Hormuz remains a hotspot for attacks on tankers. Shipping intelligence firm Marisks reported at least seven incidents in and around the strait. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was reportedly struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. All crew members were safely evacuated. Kazimah III had last been seen discharging 2 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude at the Ras Markaz port in Oman on September 17.
Marisks warned that merchant vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz face a heightened and unpredictable threat. The firm suggested that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, rather than targeting specific vessels. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency has reported at least one attack per day in the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2.