Middle East Oil Exports Surge Amid Rising Tanker Attacks in Hormuz Strait

Middle East oil exports briefly exceeded pre-war levels for about half of September, according to shipping data. Provisional figures from Kpler showed that the seven-day moving average for crude exports from the region reached 18.3 million barrels per day on September 30. Exports topped pre-war levels on 14 days in September, driven by increased shipments from Saudi Arabia through both the Red Sea and the Gulf. Iraq also resumed oil tanker passages through the Strait of Hormuz after securing Iranian permission in August.

The recent surge in exports has been attributed to Saudi Arabia's efforts to regain market share. Analysts note that this increase in supply could help ease tightness in the global oil market, particularly for Asian refiners. However, the outlook remains uncertain due to logistical constraints and a rise in tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping intelligence service Marisks reported a heightened threat to vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, with at least seven incidents in the past week. On October 1, the very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile, causing a fire onboard. Another tanker, the Lipsi, was hit on October 4, damaging its engine room. While no casualties were reported, the frequency of attacks raises concerns about the safety of maritime traffic in the region.

Before the Iran war began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz typically handled about 125 large commercial vessels per day, accounting for 20% of global crude and LNG supply. The recent pattern of incidents suggests that Iranian forces may be launching missiles into predetermined engagement areas, rather than targeting specific vessels. This unpredictable threat could further disrupt oil flows and impact global energy markets.