Middle East Oil Flows Rebound to Near-Pre-War Levels Despite Ongoing Risks

Oil exports from the Middle East have almost returned to pre-war levels, according to estimates from JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. Despite ongoing shipping risks, crude oil shipments have rebounded to 17.5 million barrels per day, or 98% of pre-war levels, while flows of products such as diesel and gasoline reached 3 million barrels daily, or 58%. This represents a remarkable recovery for a region still at war, according to analysts at JP Morgan.

The total figure of oil exports has reached 89% of 2025 levels, based on a 10-day average calculated over the past five days. Flows through the Strait of Hormuz have almost returned to the high levels recorded in late June, which are around 13 million barrels per day, primarily led by Saudi Arabia.

Goldman Sachs reported that oil exports from the Arabian Gulf, including unmonitored oil flows, recovered to 23.3 million barrels per day over the past week, equivalent to their average in 2025. The global oil market was nearly balanced during September, according to Goldman analysts.