Middle East Oil Production Expected to Grow Through 2026, But Not Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Until Q2 2027

According to a recent report by the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Information Administration (EIA), Middle East oil production is expected to increase in the coming months due to a gradual increase in exports through the Strait of Hormuz and the use of alternative routes out of the region.

The agency projects that locked-in oil production in Kuwait, the UAE, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia will reach 6.23 million barrels per day (bpd) in the third quarter, 5.66 million bpd in the fourth quarter, and 2.72 million bpd in the first quarter of 2027.

However, despite this expected growth, oil production levels are not expected to return to pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027, the report states.