A new report from Systemic and ERM, funded by the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation and developed with the International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM), outlines three potential futures for the mining industry through 2050. The report highlights the need for resilience and value creation amid growing demand, environmental concerns, and geopolitical tensions.
The three scenarios, Flywheel, Fracture, and Space Race, explore how governance, technological innovation, and international cooperation could reshape mineral supply and environmental impact. The most favorable scenario, Flywheel, envisions a globally connected industry with technological advances, transparent markets, and stronger governance, leading to 18% higher copper demand, 35% lower water consumption, 18% fewer mines, and 25% less deforestation by 2050.
In contrast, the Fracture scenario describes a fragmented world with competing regional blocs, resulting in 30% more copper demand, 70% more water consumption, 25% more mines, and 40% more deforestation. The Space Race scenario falls between these extremes, with technological competition driving innovation but also dividing mineral markets along geopolitical lines.
The report emphasizes that the future of mining will depend on the decisions made today, urging leaders to anticipate competing pressures and develop strategies that remain effective under different conditions.