Natural Gas Prices Plummet as Production Surges Past Storage

Natural gas prices have declined as production nears record levels, outpacing storage and export demand. The November contract is trading at $2.953 per million British thermal units, down 7.3 cents or 2.4% from Wednesday's settlement.

U.S. dry gas production rose to a near-record 115.0 billion cubic feet per day in late September, driven by the Permian Basin and Haynesville Shale. The EIA forecasts U.S. dry natural gas production will average 111.70 Bcf per day in 2026, up from 107.64 Bcf per day in 2025.

The surplus to the five-year average has narrowed from 148 Bcf on September 4 to 95 Bcf on September 18, as hot weather in the South kept power-sector demand elevated. The EIA's end-of-season forecast is that storage will reach 3,969 Bcf by October 31, 5% above the five-year average and 1% above October 2025 levels.