Nigeria's Economy Set for Fastest Growth in Five Years as Q2 Expansion Reaches 4.5 Percent

Nigeria's economy is poised to experience its fastest growth in the second quarter of 2026, according to a BusinessDay model-based nowcast. The projection indicates that the economy will grow at a rate of 4.5 percent in Q2 2026, marking the fastest expansion in five years.

The nowcast is supported by various indicators, including increased crude oil production, which rose to 1.56 million barrels per day in June 2026. This represents one of the country's highest monthly production levels in recent years, exceeding Nigeria's OPEC quota for the second consecutive month.

Capital market analysts, such as Idris Oyekan and Muda Yusuf, believe that the economy will remain resilient despite external shocks, citing higher oil export earnings, increased exports of refined petroleum products, stronger capital inflows, and improving macroeconomic conditions.