Nigeria's Oil Production Decline Threatens 3mbpd Target

Nigeria's ambition to reach three million barrels per day (mbpd) of crude oil production by 2030 is under threat due to a decline in production. The country's output has decreased from 1.555 mbpd in June to 1.505 mbpd in July, according to the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries' (OPEC) Monthly Oil Market Report.

The Federal Government had set a target of 3mbpd by 2030, but Nigeria only met its OPEC quota in a few months since 2024. In May 2026, Nigeria produced 1.530 mbpd, but the production declined by 50,000 barrels per day in July.

Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Heineken Lokpobiri, had declared Nigeria's ambitious plan to reach 3mbpd by 2025 during the launch of the second phase of Operation Delta Sanity II. However, the target was unachieved, and President Bola Tinubu reaffirmed the government's ambition to raise crude oil production to 3 million barrels per day by 2030.

Experts have proffered strategies to help Nigeria ramp up production, including looking at or celebrating not achieving targets as expressed by Dr. Ainojie 'Alex' Irune, Executive Director of Oando Plc. He observed that there is a deficit of what the country needs to achieve 3mbpd.