Oil Market Tightens Amid Russian Diesel Export Ban and US Reserve Concerns

The oil market is showing signs of tightening, according to an ING assessment. Middle distillate markets are facing constraints due to a prolonged diesel export prohibition by Russia until September. The country ranks as the second-largest diesel exporter, having shipped over 700,000 barrels per day in 2025.

The ICE gasoil crack remains close to unprecedented highs, trading above $70 per barrel. Stockpile figures mirror the tightening conditions, with gasoil inventories in the ARA region dropping by 221,000 tonnes week-on-week to 1.42 million tonnes, nearing the lows recorded in 2022.

The US Department of Energy has indicated that it will not draw down its strategic petroleum reserve once the current release of 172 million barrels concludes. The reserve holds just under 308 million barrels at present, and questions are mounting over how much further it can be drawn given operational thresholds.