Oil Prices Fuel Indian Rupee Decline as USD/INR Pair Eyes CPI Data
The Indian Rupee (INR) has extended its decline against the US Dollar (USD), as oil prices continue to surge. The USD/INR pair is trading near 95.45, with the MCX Crude Oil contract expiring on August 19 rising by 1% to Rs. 8,040.
Countries that rely heavily on oil imports, like India, tend to underperform in high-oil-price environments. The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has restricted energy supply and boosted oil prices, with shipping traffic through the strait plummeting from 130-140 ships daily to just six vessels on August 10.
On Wednesday, key triggers for the USD/INR pair will be the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for July of both India and the US. Economists at DBS Group Research expect India's retail CPI to remain largely steady at 4.4% YoY vs June, while Brown Brothers Harriman's Elias Haddad expects the US July CPI report to show inflation firming but not reaccelerating.
Technically, USD/INR is inching closer to the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at 95.52, hinting at a shift in the near-term bias from bearish to neutral. Immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA near 95.52.