Ontario and Alberta Propose New Pipeline Project Amid Line 5 Risk

Doug Ford's Ontario government and Danielle Smith's Alberta government have proposed a new pipeline project called Northern Shield Energy Corridor, which would transport 500,000 barrels of Western Canadian crude oil per day from Hardisty, Alberta to Sarnia, Ontario. The proposed route spans 3,300 kilometers, passing through Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and northern Ontario, before reaching the refining hub in Sarnia.

The project is still in its feasibility study stage, with a target completion date of the end of 2026. Premier Ford has stated that Ontario is prepared to provide 'patient capital' while seeking private investors for the project.

However, experts warn that the odds of Northern Shield being built are high - likely between 60-80% - due to Canada's recent pipeline record. The country has a history of delays and cancellations of major pipeline projects, including Energy East, which was canceled in 2017 due to Quebec opposition and Indigenous concerns.

The proposed route for Northern Shield avoids Quebec, but experts warn that the project still faces significant challenges, including difficult terrain, labor and steel supply constraints, and the need for federal approvals. The estimated cost of the project is unclear, but analysts suggest it could range from $25-50 billion once detailed engineering is complete.